Bessent’s Bullshit
This week was highlighted by Sec. Bessent’s flaccid girl throw attempt at stemming US interest rates, which are primarily under pressure now since winning the Iranian war and opening the Strait. Because of all of the winning, the equilibrium is off, which in turn is applying pressure to many different parts of the economy, such as RECOURD diesel fuel cracks.
The good news, Trump is importing 300 gorillion tonnes of shit-beef from foreign lands, so the fork shiners can dine on high luxury this Thanksgiving on ground beef shaped turkeys. The kids will love it.
Here is a look at the long end.
We seem to get intermittent bouts of relief betwixt the general and primary trend, the fuck, lower. The lower it goes — the more we squeeze those interested in affordable chopped meat. All of this bodes poorly for retailers and other consumer sensitive areas of the economy (see WMT’s earnings for evidence).
Simultaneously, people with investments in AI are rich as fuck — exaggerating the K-shaped economy to levels not previously thought possible.
On the matter of AI investments, Citadel is now out of 80% of Leo’s positions, which would explain the recent weakness in AI stocks the past week.
In regard to Bessent and US rates, markets will eventually decide equilibrium. My sense, he is trying to buy Trump more time with his war victory, attempting to stave off the optics of a 6% 30yr. At some level, investors will decide if it’s worth the gambit, locking in high “risk free” returns. Meanwhile, the dollar debasement trade is back in play, featured by Bitcoin and Gold’s resurgence. But it’s not limited to only those, with rabid breakouts in any number of copper, rare earth and nickel miner stocks. Steel was excluded from the rally after Trump permitted foreign steel to come in without being hampered by tariffs.
All of this occurring with the SPY 1.6% off highs, Nasdaq -4.5% — semis still -16% off its previous high water mark. Consider that for a moment.
Lastly, the mid-terms are now focusing on AI datacenter opposition. Americans grew up watching movies like The Matrix and Terminator and are generally retarded when it comes to technological innovation. They never want to accept it and fight it all the way. My Grandfather used to tell me stories about them hating on the lightbulb, street lamps, radios and cars, which put so many lamp lighters out of business, not to mention the ice man who was fired on sight, upon the introduction of the refrigerator. At the crux of the issue is the aforementioned K shaped economy and how ground beef prices are bedraggling people to make installment payments via Affirm all the while assholes like Dario from Anthropic fear monger about AI whilst simultaneously become insanely rich off it. Anthropic has single handedly caused many people to hate AI and fear it, accentuated by Chinese models dumping tokens for free in America — which of course is catnip for bears who find themselves hating yet another stock market run, with markets up 8 of the last 10 years.
This time, of course, will be different.
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