Based Capital Blog

Not Out of the Woods Yet

Back from a night out with Mrs. Fly, celebrating her 50th birthday. We have been together for 30 years, raised 3 children, and I am grateful to have met her as an intern in college at the Small Business Administration in NYC. She was curious about me after seeing my unique name on the sign […]

Thoughts on Current Tape

We made modest gains today, but markets sold off into the close and had been difficult for the entire day. It seemed each large green candle was met with a red and for the most part churning and grinding steadily lower amidst a breakout in the VIX. Market breadth was a respectable 45% higher, with […]

Markets Routed in FOMC Infused Panic

I do not like to trade on Fed days, especially since they are rife with collapses and upside reversals. Today we only got collapse and then further collapse, because the Fed cut rates but pointed to a moderation in this policy because of what we already knew: inflation had not moderated to the point of […]

Notable Deterioration in the Tape

Today was a rough day in the market, but the overall indices were somewhat mundane, masking some of the violence taking place. Again, this has everything to do with the tera cap status of the Mag 7. On the issue of hedging: although tempting, the major inverse ETFs have been hard to approach, with 10% […]