The rarity of the SL 12mo oversold signal should be noted. We haven’t had many and each one resulted in EXTENDED rallies, not just a day or two. The excess hit rate on such a signal is ~23% better than your normal trading patterns.Perhaps we rally up another 3-5% from here and the rest? Unsure.What...Read More

What is all of this nonsense being bandied about — FOMC needing to hike rates to stop the scourge of inflation!? Listen to me, the Fed can hike rates to 10% and it wouldn’t change a single thing about the encumbered supply chain — thanks to Iran. Nothing at all matters besides this singular topic....Read More

Oil +4.4% to $105 absolutely drubbed the consumer to death today. After the consumer died, oil followed them to the after life and then beat them again. We had a minor drawdown of 22bps — but the cracking of the consumer today was intense. Here are some notable ones.WING -11%CBRL -10.5%BOBS -10%BOOT -10%ARHS -9%CAVA -8%CAKE...Read More

What a piece of shit this CEO of Anthropic is. Whether you agree with the need for regulation or not, his comments were made in a public forum because he’s a sociopath lunatic, perhaps a redundant insult but I’ll say it anyway. Everything he said could have and should have been said behind closed doors...Read More

Big news over the weekend with OpenAI pushing back its ipo to 2027 and Dario from Anthropic penning an essay calling for AI to ‘pace itself.’Below are various sources in regard to what I’m about to offer an opinion about.If unchecked, AI can quite literally walk any human of basic competence into building a mustard...Read More