Peering into the Future for the Opportunities Which Lie Ahead

Greetings and Salutations —

Amongst AI related stocks with market caps greater than $10b, earnings TTM (trailing twelve months) are +21%, year over year +38%. Revenues rose 22% on a median basis and sequential growth (quarter over quarter) rose 5.3%.

Naturally, all of this good news have caused some people to be gravely afraid of numbers and success — stirring up more nonsense online in regard to “it cannot last forever” FUD. Long form blogs and X posts have an especially profound effect on many of you retards who barely know how to read, who instead take to “charting” as a method to invest. No matter the revenues and/or what the company does or anything associated with the business you might invest in, you are only interested in, like a brainless dodo bird, subsequent moving averages — in a soulless and intellectually devoid manner of finding new ideas.

“Where’s the fun in that?!”, I always ponder. The reason why retail is so weak and filled with fears is because they are stock market illiterate. They make x amount of dollars by pure happenstance, buying “breakouts”, and don’t know anything else about it. They prefer, as a mode of habit, to be slothful and pretend to be an authority by way of silly formations on charts — an idiots guide towards ruin.

On the other hand, there is intuition involved in this process, which I find to be valid. I’ve seen it too many times to ignore its effectiveness, perhaps something to do about the simulation we may or may not be living in.

Some times I believe we are nodes in a giant alien AI project, all of us serving a specific purpose in this program. Many are good little nodes, industrious and reliable, whilst others like to loot and steal and cheat their way through life — which has an effect too. If you look at history and study when the greatest innovations were achieved it’s always during a time of crisis and war. Humans need to be pressed to the wall in order to invent interesting and efficient ways to kill one another. Judging by the rocket and drone warfare we see today, nothing has changed in thousands of years.

Taking an aerial view of the planet, it’s clear to me we are in a period of high energetic change, which is foisting onto us the specter of ruinous change or an opportunity to augment the present course to something much better. The latter option is almost always the path humans take, save the Black Death period of history — but that was something beyond our control. We now stand in the middle of a period of rapid wealth creation for those fortunate enough to partake, as many of you reading this are.

We have dubbed this the “K shaped economy”, which is a pleasant branding to plainly state many of you out there are completely fucked whilst others are doing splendid. Do not feel sorry about success or apologize for it. That’s just the way it is, no different from young Fly being able to strike out batter after batter in straight heater fastballs down the middle. There was nothing the batters could do about it then but swing and miss — and for some of you reading this now, there is nothing you can do but win.

(This is perhaps the nicest thing I’ve ever said to my readers, and I apologize to those who prefer I just insult you ad hoc.)

What we learned this week with the new Fed Chair Warsh is the Fed is intent on finally stomping out inflation. Sometimes words are all that is needed to get prices going in the direction needed, other times action might be required. All economic data from now until the next meeting in 6 weeks will be under close inspection and will be market moving. Much of the recent inflation we’ve seen is the direct result of the Iran war. Since the war cooled off, prices have collapsed.

2 week returns for some raw commodities

Oil -16%
Silver -11%
Platinum -10%
Copper -5%
Uranium -5%
Sugar -3.5%

Should some of the inflation data come in softer than expected, those of you out there who only rely upon lines and dots on charts should expect to see this rally take on a ribald nature — pressing upwards across multiple industries — not just AI. There is a whole facet of this market that is dying to partake, in particular banks and consumer related names.

Spruce Pine, NC possesses the single best source of quartz on the planet, essential in making high end glass for fiber optics and semiconductors. Corning (GLW) also has the best sand source for their glass and the best process to convert it into high yielding products. This is a moat that has been built over decades of expertise, extremely hard to replicate.

In the semiconductor space, we are moving towards 2nm wafers to address the looming compute and power crisis. A 2nm chip offers a 30% reduction in power needed compared to the current leading edge 3nm. The single best foundry for these wafers in thew world is TSM. The company that makes the tools for an effective clean room for advanced wafers is ENTG. The company who modulates power at the chip level is MPWR and at the rack is AEIS.

My point is, the most important bottlenecks going forward are yields and power. Without either, none of this AI business can sustain its current trajectory. You have a choice: be fearful or opportunistic. Some of us do not have a choice in the matter, always flinching at the first sight of danger, into the dirt on a fastball up and in. The Fly is hard (pause) like a slab of marble falling onto the heads of unsuspecting body lotion vendors. Convictions can be increased exponentially with the comforts of knowledge, instead of being a vagabond trader wholly dependent upon moving averages and other nonsensical variations of ill repute.

Until next week, good luck.