These two things are intertwined now.Oil for the session.Markets.The high beta aspect of this trade is any item that uses oil as a major input. Think materials, piping, concrete, aluminum, copper, airlines etc. This is why the harshest downturns are now in SCCO, MT, FCX, BHP and other metals, as well as construction plays. At...Read More

Markets are pricing in two things at once: lack of resources coming from the Gulf, which is adversely affecting semis, construction, rubber, retail, while buoying companies who make certain chemicals from the region. Here are the chemicals in shortage now due to the closure of the Straits.Polyethylene: used in pipes, plastics, construction materialsAssociated stocks: DOW,...Read More

I have never experienced a tape quite like this the past year. Usually we have garden varietal fears, such as economic headwinds and/or consumer spending. But now we have boogeymen under each and every bed. TariffsCAPEXAI replacement InflationFOMCTrump tweetsWarOil shockConsumer DeepseekTrade warsHFTs (Jane Street)Private CreditEssentially, the market is a fucking pastiche of cowardice, an consortment of...Read More

This was a difficult session, in spite of our +10bps gains. Sure it was better than market and we made some money, but the intraday news was ridiculous. Late afternoon the Energy Sec tweeted a US Warship had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Straits of Hormuz. On that news, markets were joyous, ebullient...Read More

Last night it was the end of the world. Oil futures rose by 30% and markets were poised to crater by 2.5%. Asian markets were down 6-9% and the dollar was soaring. At the onset of trading today, the mood was cautious. We maintained better than market performance all day and close +106bps, in spite...Read More