First, let’s get the market business out the way. We nailed today +163bps, putting MTD gains back over 3% and YTD back to near +15%, or 6%+ better than SPY. The previous few days was rough, mainly because risk was ushered back into the tape and many of our holdings, although great companies, are crowded....Read More

Good DayMarkets rotated heavily today into software, secular names, staples trash and out from AI/semis/formerly working tech. We closed -73bps thanks to our high beta sleeve. It was very binary, high beta sharply lower while low beta up. We de-rerisked slightly by closing out NBIS for +27%, HOOD +2%, WTTR +9%, whilst starting NFLX and...Read More

Brief note on valuation. Forward PE for SPY is now 22. However, consider the fact that a decade ago the SPY was ~20% high growth tech and is now more than 50% — it is an apples to oranges comparison. If you stripped out the top 10 stocks and looked at the 490, the forward...Read More

Rough session, giving back ~2%, crossed against the SPY -1.2%. For the week, up 2bps, so that’s the bright note. We allocated less than 1% cash into today’s decline. I didn’t want to but made sure I added to something on a dip, in this case AEIS and ENTG. Both narratives are still firmly in...Read More

AMAT just crushed earnings.Applied Materials sees Q3 $3.16-3.56 vs $2.89 FactSet Consensus; sees revs $8.45-9.45 bln vs $8.14 bln FactSet Consensus I mentioned this before and I will double down again. The memory shortage will be fixed and those people frantic about MU, SNDK and WDC will soon be feverish about LRCX, AMAT and KLAC. The...Read More