Markets pared back today on a meaningless Fed meeting. The market was down ~60bps prior to Powell thanks to the bombing of Iran’s largest natural gas fields — and then legged lower some more after Powell let loose some drivel in regards to inflation and Fed cuts.We already knew this, but markets like to pretend...Read More

Even if you’re not Irish, go get yourselves some boiled meats, lightly salted potatoes and cabbage and a pint. ‘Tis the time to be merry and cheerful. No doom scrolling on X to see all of the horrible horribles today. We made some money, +38bps, better than SPY by a bit. The weather is getting...Read More

Market bounced today off oversold levels, but not much has materially changed in Iran. We lifted in the morning and markets listed since then, meandering in a range bound manner for the duration of the session. Very briefly market ripped off NVDA comments of $1t in revs — but that too faded. This has been...Read More

Worst case scenarios aside, let’s look at how investors are positioned. NAAIM exposure index is 66.99.Goldman’s Prime Brokerage writes that “amid increased market volatility and continued geopolitical tensions, US-listed ETF shorts on the Prime book increased +10% yesterday: the 2nd largest 1-day increase on Goldman’s record (since 2016).“SPY futs liquidity thinnest since Liberation Day.Goldman’s head trader John Flood:...Read More

These two things are intertwined now.Oil for the session.Markets.The high beta aspect of this trade is any item that uses oil as a major input. Think materials, piping, concrete, aluminum, copper, airlines etc. This is why the harshest downturns are now in SCCO, MT, FCX, BHP and other metals, as well as construction plays. At...Read More