There is not a more important question than the current yield of treasuries and the direction in which it is heading. Let’s lay out the bull and bear scenarios.CASE FOR LOWER RATES:Inflation has moderated to the point that job market softness outweighs the dual mandate importance, demanding immediate action by the FOMC.Although debt burdened and...Read More

Jobs came in much weaker than expected at +22k for the month with a downward revision for June, placing it in negative territory for the first time since 2020. The initial response was ribald gains and then at around 9:40am I noticed a distinct rotation, the stuff I’ve been mentioning the past month — out...Read More

At the open of trade we had some erratic pin action, the sort of red candles that might normally scare me out. But we held firm and tight knowing the perfect jobs numbers are just around the bend and if not the entire BLS board might lose their jobs, and perhaps much more. We ended...Read More

All was lost up until the last 30 mins of trade, when everything melted up without cause or concern for the bearshitters who befitted themselves with burlap cloth drenched in gasoline. I was a little besides myself with grief, having watched an early and ebullient +73bps gain spoil to breakeven by 3pm. It didn’t seem...Read More

I have spent the past hour completely triggered by a sequence of events that causes me great personal injury. The State of Florida in all of its grandeur mandates all applicants wanting to be registered in said state must go through their preferred digital finger prints vendor. Because I apparently reside in the backwater parts...Read More