Iran informed us down to the minute when their missiles would be fired, targeting an evacuated airforce base with precisely 6 missiles — because that is the precise amount we used on them. The net result was NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. It was supposed to be filled with things terrorists are into — such as mustard...Read More

The weekend strikes on Iran has thrusted us into a fluid environment, none of which should lead to systemic risk to American hegemony. I think the 2022 collapse was due to, in large part, uncertainty as to the Russian campaign in Ukraine and how it might cause fractures in the NATO scheme. After people realized...Read More

Lads, Lassies,It was an uneventful week in the midst of the tumult. The SPY closed down 0.4%, Nasdaq flat for the week. We managed a gain of 55bps, thanks in large part to better than market positioning. We still maintain a 9% notional hedge on the Qs, a bunch of oil, and lots of cash....Read More

It looks very likely that Trump will join the war against Iran within the next 48 hrs. We have seen this play out before and markets always get jitters in anticipation of war and then sort of get used to it being status quo and pretend nothing ever happened. This might be different in regards...Read More

Greetings Gents, Ladies — I have arrived safely, family in tow, to a wonderful rental home in Santa Barbara. We intend to remain here until Saturday. I will be trading from here all week.I saw markets bounced on news that perhaps Iran was open to the idea of peace — providing the US would not...Read More