Market bounced today off oversold levels, but not much has materially changed in Iran. We lifted in the morning and markets listed since then, meandering in a range bound manner for the duration of the session. Very briefly market ripped off NVDA comments of $1t in revs — but that too faded. This has been...Read More

Worst case scenarios aside, let’s look at how investors are positioned. NAAIM exposure index is 66.99.Goldman’s Prime Brokerage writes that “amid increased market volatility and continued geopolitical tensions, US-listed ETF shorts on the Prime book increased +10% yesterday: the 2nd largest 1-day increase on Goldman’s record (since 2016).“SPY futs liquidity thinnest since Liberation Day.Goldman’s head trader John Flood:...Read More

These two things are intertwined now.Oil for the session.Markets.The high beta aspect of this trade is any item that uses oil as a major input. Think materials, piping, concrete, aluminum, copper, airlines etc. This is why the harshest downturns are now in SCCO, MT, FCX, BHP and other metals, as well as construction plays. At...Read More

Markets are pricing in two things at once: lack of resources coming from the Gulf, which is adversely affecting semis, construction, rubber, retail, while buoying companies who make certain chemicals from the region. Here are the chemicals in shortage now due to the closure of the Straits.Polyethylene: used in pipes, plastics, construction materialsAssociated stocks: DOW,...Read More

I have never experienced a tape quite like this the past year. Usually we have garden varietal fears, such as economic headwinds and/or consumer spending. But now we have boogeymen under each and every bed. TariffsCAPEXAI replacement InflationFOMCTrump tweetsWarOil shockConsumer DeepseekTrade warsHFTs (Jane Street)Private CreditEssentially, the market is a fucking pastiche of cowardice, an consortment of...Read More