We closed the month ~+4.2%, with outperformance in the past week due to being fully or next to fully invested. Markets in general were calm and gains broad based.If there is one consistent narrative for 2025, as hectic as its been, it is the debasement of the dollar — now down 9% YTD, an astonishing...Read More

July has been a fine month for investors, no matter what markets did in previous months. There are outlier months to the upside and downside — September being on the down and July on the up. Here are the stats for the SPY during July since 2010.It’s worth noting, however, in several years in the...Read More

I have a pretty good sense of awareness about myself when trading. I know when I am slumping and when I am seeing the market the way I should. I am in my element in this sort of tape. The pervasive upside pressure is exactly the sort of tape I lean into and perform. Midday...Read More

I am going to do a comprehensive post about July seasonality and touch on this issue, which is often discarded as novelty by people who believe what has happened in the past might not occur in the future. While true in principle, I think it’s important to identify patterns in human behavior when trying to...Read More

Market breadth clocked in at just 35%, and yet the SPY was flat, NASDAQ slightly higher due to NVDA cresting to record highs. Typically speaking, when met with breadth of 35% — markets usually drop anywhere from 0.5 to 1.5%.As of today, this is a consolidation day — because the action wasn’t too grim, just...Read More