Tomorrow we get NFP numbers and judging by the ADP #s, they should come in moderately weak. The pressure provided by the administration to the Fed is justified and if we get a “goldilocks” number tomorrow, there could be a sharp move lower in rates. Granted, the charts do not suggest looming crashing of rates...Read More

The July seasonality list I compiled was up a staggering 1.5% today, had been higher intraday. The rotation into homebuilders and Dow stocks started in earnest today, in a manner that was a little shocking. Gains in names like DOW, SJM and other secular names were truly outsized. On the other side of the ledger...Read More

We closed the month ~+4.2%, with outperformance in the past week due to being fully or next to fully invested. Markets in general were calm and gains broad based.If there is one consistent narrative for 2025, as hectic as its been, it is the debasement of the dollar — now down 9% YTD, an astonishing...Read More

July has been a fine month for investors, no matter what markets did in previous months. There are outlier months to the upside and downside — September being on the down and July on the up. Here are the stats for the SPY during July since 2010.It’s worth noting, however, in several years in the...Read More

I have a pretty good sense of awareness about myself when trading. I know when I am slumping and when I am seeing the market the way I should. I am in my element in this sort of tape. The pervasive upside pressure is exactly the sort of tape I lean into and perform. Midday...Read More