I am going to do a comprehensive post about July seasonality and touch on this issue, which is often discarded as novelty by people who believe what has happened in the past might not occur in the future. While true in principle, I think it’s important to identify patterns in human behavior when trying to...Read More

Market breadth clocked in at just 35%, and yet the SPY was flat, NASDAQ slightly higher due to NVDA cresting to record highs. Typically speaking, when met with breadth of 35% — markets usually drop anywhere from 0.5 to 1.5%.As of today, this is a consolidation day — because the action wasn’t too grim, just...Read More

July has been the outlier month for markets for the better part of the past decade. There was once a time when summer months meant doldrums. I used to talk about how Junior at the trading turret would muck things up till September. But the trends have changed.This morning I had to flush out of...Read More

Iran informed us down to the minute when their missiles would be fired, targeting an evacuated airforce base with precisely 6 missiles — because that is the precise amount we used on them. The net result was NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. It was supposed to be filled with things terrorists are into — such as mustard...Read More

The weekend strikes on Iran has thrusted us into a fluid environment, none of which should lead to systemic risk to American hegemony. I think the 2022 collapse was due to, in large part, uncertainty as to the Russian campaign in Ukraine and how it might cause fractures in the NATO scheme. After people realized...Read More