Earlier this morning Sec. Lutnick threw a semi-damp towel on the euphoria that was to be enjoyed tomorrow by stating the semi and electronic tariff exemptions were temporary carveouts in order to better plan for America re-shoring. We have seen IG weekend futs moderate from +4% to +2.1%. But I think it’s important to remember...Read More

Major development:US PUBLISHES TARIFF EXCLUSIONS FOR SPECIFIED PRODUCTSUS TARIFF EXCLUSIONS APPLY TO COMPUTERS, SMARTPHONESUS TARIFF EXCLUSIONS ALSO APPLY TO CHIP-MAKING EQUIPMENTTARIFF EXCLUSIONS APPLY TO SO-CALLED `RECIPROCAL’ TARIFFSAnalysts are already fawning over this, sending weekend FUTS +1.1%.My best sense here is Trump is offering an olive branch to China and is fully engaged with markets now....Read More

I am glad the week is over. I have PTSD from this tape, flinching at each Trump presser, each tweet, each red candle. In times like this, I like to drift off and remember the halcyon days of 7 weeks ago when the economy was booming and brighter skies ahead. We are now enveloped by...Read More

Markets crescendo’d lower in infamous fashion today, at one point flirting with a trading halt of -7%. It bounced off it and closed -4.3% on the NASDAQ and -3.5% for the SPY. Although jarring, coming off yesterday’s rigged session — this was to be expected. One thing is clear: The Trump Administration is watching markets...Read More

Overnight we had credit issues during Asia trade, major spikes in the US 10yr with rumors of a basis trade unwind. Early in the session we were seeing 50bps swings inside minutes and it looked like something was going to break, until Trump issued a tweet saying he was increasing tariffs on China to 150%,...Read More