Markets went up today, but the internals collapsed after Sec Bessent said negotiations with China might take 2-3 years — an absurd statement bordering on the ribald. I don’t know why they do 5 pressers per day, with each one of them intent on saying things to jar markets. In spite of all that, we’ve...Read More

I’ve researched decades of data, looking for occasions when markets traded down more than 3 months: extremely rare. After the close, Trump said he would not hardball Xi, would not look to fire Powell, and the 145% tariff would not stick after making a deal.How to read this:The Navarro-Lutnick faction of the Trump admin is...Read More

The non-stop interference by Trump is having a grating effect on Wall Street. Like him or hate him, Wall Street has Trump fatigue — today due to his Powell post calling him a “loser”. I think Powell is being political and feel he should definitely cut rates; but there has to be a better way...Read More

As a boy, Easter at House Fly was hosted at Grandpa Fly’s house. His name was Ernest and my grandmother Theresa. I bear his name, as my middle name, because at the time of my birth — he was in the hospital with a heart attack. Interestingly enough, when my first son was born in...Read More

If you remember the environment circa 1998 – 2000 it was fueled by new v old economy narratives. For several years during the dot com boom — Wall Street celebrated and punished growth v value stocks, often creating a see-saw effect with the prevailing trends. At the time of the bubble bursting in March of...Read More