The importance of this firing, aside from the muhhhh independent aspect of the Fed, is that Trump will soon have majority control of the Fed board, likely to exert his influence to see rates lower. As many of you know from our initial conversations, I have always been a proponent for lower rates, for various...Read More

On Friday upside breadth was 85%. Today it closed at 35%. The losses were concentrated in small caps (-1%) and the Dow (-0.8%) with the SPY closing down -43bps. Our losses about matched the SPY.The last time we had a great breadth upside day was 5/27 at 78% with markets +2%. The very next day...Read More

Just organizing some data, and then running it via ChatGPT for further analysis, figured I’d share it with you.Below are years when SPY was green during September and sector ETFs during those years.Sept 2024: +1.8%SMH +0.8%XLF -1%DIA +1.6%XBI -2.4%VTV +1%XLV -2%XLU +5.8%XRT +1.8%IWM +0.4%XHB +6%QQQ +2.4%IEMG +5.4%TLT +1.6%XLE -3.8%XLI +3%GDX +3%FXI +20%IYR +2.3%KRE -2.1%XME +6.4%BTC...Read More

When I started iBankCoin I wanted to hire a writer for the site and took him to lunch at the Four Seasons, NYC. It was 2009 and he regaled me with his hatred for stocks, describing why they ought to be lower and it all made sense. He said “this is the most hated rally...Read More

Above are monthly returns for the S&P 500 by month dating back to 1993. Is there anything unique about August – Sept inasmuch business collapses and/or great natural disasters wipes out large swaths of over-eager consumers?No.We just got it into our minds, as a collective, that this is the time of year to stoke some...Read More