I sense we have a week to two tops before this version of the war pauses again for refueling and re-arming –perhaps until the midterms are over and a more opportune time to partake in some killings. Markets did not like the fact oil spiked 8% before coming in a bit. I viewed it as...Read More

Don’t expect markets to do much of anything with crude lifting 2% per day. I ran some analysis via OpenAI on when the US will enter the crisis zone for crude and this is what it spit out.In stock related news, we gained 9bps today, which is nice when expecting to lose money. We had...Read More

We’re not out from the woods yet, but we managed +176bps today, +92bps over SPY with cash levels down to ~19%. The reason for today’s rally was because we were oversold + NVDA said Vera Rubin was on pace for production and if you recall this weekend the new Deepseek fuckers called “Moonshot” (Kimi) had...Read More

Mrs. Fly is an excellent investor. All she does is have me offer her some ideas, buys them, and then checks back in about 2 or 3 years down the line. She’ll open her brokerage app on a whim in about a year from now and say “super cool” and then not check back again...Read More

It looks like the olde Fly goes away/markets tumble correlation is back. Fortunately, we shed 44bps on the session, much less than the overall tape — but it was a bowser of a week with risk off in just about all AI related names. It was encouraging to see stocks place in what looked like...Read More