Don’t email me your bearish ideas.We had a key reversal session on Thursday, held the line on Friday and now busted loose today. We had too little risk on the books, made +84bps for the session, and I increased exposure to 18% cash down from 25%. We bought 2% XLK, 1% NOK, 1% HUT, 0.5%...Read More

I’ve heard about the Fed failing the economy since 2001, especially accentuated during the 2008 debacle. Some folks are everlasting in their belief America is on the verge of ultimate collapse — due to “the consumer” and other antique notions of how a global economic engine carries. At the vanguard of these fears are interest...Read More

Wanted to drop a quick note about the state of markets. What a month. I’l have more to say during tomorrow’s newsletter. Be sure to navigate the BCW site under “NL” to subscribe.A tumultuous risk off month, probably the worst I’ve seen in a specific sector since the COVID days. We had broken elevator action...Read More

Situational Awareness has been sacrificed to the stock Gods — a valid and excellent offering.Now with Ken Griffin in control of Leo’s fund, which was +28% today alone, some might view today as a “clearing event” to get stocks going higher again. Couple this with the Fed and now AMZN blowout numbers, confirming capex of...Read More

If you’re not familiar with Leopold Aschenbrenner — it’s a story as old as time in markets. Young whiz kid who never grew up during a poor market, 24 years old, shot to fame last year due to his concentrated bets on AI, namely BE. He took $250mm to $6b, by incredibly not selling any...Read More