First let’s review some real life headlines that isn’t conjecture.Bahrain: Reopened. Bahrain’s Civil Aviation Affairs announced the reopening of Bahrain’s airspace on April 8, 2026, and Bahrain International Airport began a gradual resumption of flights on April 9.United Arab Emirates: Open. The UAE’s GCAA said air traffic operations had returned to normal across UAE airspace...Read More

Hello GentsEarlier today I mentioned returns YTD of over 4%. I probably should not be quoting returns here, since not all accounts are weighted the same. On that issue, some accounts are smaller and cannot allocate the same as a larger account. For example, some of you only have just 1 share of GEV, while...Read More

Ladies, MenWe closed +315bps for the session, now +4.12% for the year, or our record highs. Markets are still 5-5.5% behind us, so we have achieved measurable alpha. For the session, we were +60bps over SPY in spite of 17% cash.Moves for the day includedadding 2% to SCHD, 0.5% to CSCO, sold FLY for +23%,...Read More

Gentlemen, we have freedom candles. On news of everlasting peace in the Middle East, SPY futs have mooned +220bps, oil COLLAPSES by 15.8%, gold +2.3%. This is the one of 10 sessions of the year needing to be long and we did it. We did it Joe!Albeit cash remains inexorably at 16% ish, I am...Read More

I’ve traded all environs since the 90s, entailing crisis of many different varietals. CIVILIZATION ENDING crisis is a new one for me. I must admit to being completely stoic about it, for it seems obvious the likely outcome. I know the Mad King theory is jarring; but barring that — perhaps the most likely outcome...Read More