It looks like the olde Fly goes away/markets tumble correlation is back. Fortunately, we shed 44bps on the session, much less than the overall tape — but it was a bowser of a week with risk off in just about all AI related names. It was encouraging to see stocks place in what looked like...Read More

I have to meet one of my favorite clients (wealthy) for dinner at 5pm, so I’ll place my thoughts here now about today’s disgusting tape.Nothing is specific. There isn’t any news to point to other than the 2pm GOOGL Gemini delay bogging. Aside from that, this is a risk off event due to all of...Read More

I’m in a car back to Brooklyn now after having an early dinner and a show with Mom and wanted to offer a few thoughts on the recent action.There is a battle taking place now between the spenders (hyperscalers) and vendors (semis, fiber). Earlier today Dylan Patel from Semianalysis spread rumors that NVDA’s latest chip...Read More

Reading this late in the session had me thinking a deal could be had, and perhaps enjoyed.Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi: Iran’s return to negotiations and flexibility regarding the Strait of Hormuz are possible.We gained +72bps for the session, off the highs with more or less slop trading for most of the afternoon. I was...Read More

This is a tricky tape, specifically because of the unpredictability of Trump. Soaring oil prices and the closure of the Strait is of course risk averse, a malady across the risk food chain from rates to inflation to AI stocks. On the other hand, we have seen this play out so many times before and...Read More