If you’re not familiar with Leopold Aschenbrenner — it’s a story as old as time in markets. Young whiz kid who never grew up during a poor market, 24 years old, shot to fame last year due to his concentrated bets on AI, namely BE. He took $250mm to $6b, by incredibly not selling any...Read More

The Fed did nothing today, which initially led to a nice rally off the lows only to later be walked down during Warsh’s testimony, with the motivation lying in rates spiking. If it weren’t for the fact markets are down 10 of the last 11 days, I’d chalk up today as a typical Fed day...Read More

Full blown panic in many an AI stock today, partially stoked by the gambling Koreans margin calling their entire exchange last night, off by 11% for the session. We have seen an incredible divergence in AI related names and everything else, with everything else trending up and the formerly great stuff tanking. At the same...Read More

We got oil down and still semis were crucified after reports that muuuuuh China has invented a DUV machine to compete with ASML. It really is a repetitive news cycle of wonders followed by Capex fears and then when in doubt — cast insane aspersions about China and how they’re effectively going to lay waste...Read More

Good Day —Nasdaq futures are up more than 300 — but let’s not get too comfortable because there isn’t a peace deal only a brief cessation of violence. The fact remains inexorably true that we are within 3-6 weeks of running out of crude and the only way to extricate ourselves from this quagmire is...Read More