July has been the outlier month for markets for the better part of the past decade. There was once a time when summer months meant doldrums. I used to talk about how Junior at the trading turret would muck things up till September. But the trends have changed.This morning I had to flush out of...Read More

Iran informed us down to the minute when their missiles would be fired, targeting an evacuated airforce base with precisely 6 missiles — because that is the precise amount we used on them. The net result was NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. It was supposed to be filled with things terrorists are into — such as mustard...Read More

The weekend strikes on Iran has thrusted us into a fluid environment, none of which should lead to systemic risk to American hegemony. I think the 2022 collapse was due to, in large part, uncertainty as to the Russian campaign in Ukraine and how it might cause fractures in the NATO scheme. After people realized...Read More

Lads, Lassies,It was an uneventful week in the midst of the tumult. The SPY closed down 0.4%, Nasdaq flat for the week. We managed a gain of 55bps, thanks in large part to better than market positioning. We still maintain a 9% notional hedge on the Qs, a bunch of oil, and lots of cash....Read More

It looks very likely that Trump will join the war against Iran within the next 48 hrs. We have seen this play out before and markets always get jitters in anticipation of war and then sort of get used to it being status quo and pretend nothing ever happened. This might be different in regards...Read More