In spite of the GDP contraction today, we increased exposure — because the numbers weren’t exactly what people thought they were.ZH did a great job with the analysis — full article here.Finally, and most importantly, net trade (exports less imports) was a whopping 4.830% hit to the final GDP number, a 5% swing from the...Read More

Markets once again crept higher and we increased exposure to 70%, making +50bps for our troubles. The market is presently in the twilight of fantasy and reality, meaning the numbers that come out aren’t that important because they’re backward looking and no one is sure how next quarter or the one after will look. So,...Read More

I have a client who sells chopped meat, surveying his property from atop one his pet giraffes. He sends me negative looking charts and tidings of doom in the not too distant future. He’s a good man, smart, but he likely doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about.While it’s true the market has gone...Read More

If not for the tariff FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) I’d be 125% long right now. Looking out to today’s sea of green following a rout, it appears to be busting loose. I identified this early and quickly upped our allocation to about 64%, with all day trades at a profit as of the close....Read More

Markets went up today, but the internals collapsed after Sec Bessent said negotiations with China might take 2-3 years — an absurd statement bordering on the ribald. I don’t know why they do 5 pressers per day, with each one of them intent on saying things to jar markets. In spite of all that, we’ve...Read More