Last night we seized Venezuela and will be looking to re-initiate oil operations for both XOM and CVX shortly. The immediate effect on crude is immaterial; but longer term this is bearish for crude, bullish for a reduction in inflation. Much of what I believe this year I believed last year, with a few caveats....Read More

We gained +99bps crossed against a SPY barely up and QQQ down 27bps. The session was much better than indices suggested, with many a high beta name moving higher. Often times in the beginning of a New Year there is indecision and palpable ramps, especially during week 2 of the month. I am happy to...Read More

Some snippets. I’ll have some analysis later tonight or tomorrow.RabobankThe stagflationary shock of the tariffs is still working its way through the economy, while theAI boom has led to a positive demand shock that sooner or later should be overtaken by apositive supply shock. Both developments bring a large amount of uncertainty to the outlookfor...Read More

I’ll reserve the more analytical post for tomorrow. I am two dirty martinis in and feeling better after the glum session and wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year’s. I have always been a big believer in renewal and setting a tone and I feel the same heading into 2026. We are going to...Read More

Perhaps gold and silver will be on my laggards of ’26 list. But for now, I have no choice but to concede a grandiose year for many a bug, who must be celebrating the New Year’s in a most effervescent manner.Sector wise the laggards were in chems (-41%), textiles (-31%), truckers (-30%), health care plans...Read More