Good day — Today is my 49th bday. No big parties or giant ballroom waltzes — just a quiet BBQ with the family with a nightcap movie to see Mission Impossible. It’s funny how we feel about our birthdays over the years: from the most important day to the most celebrated day to a day...Read More

The feeling of decisive movements, seminal events, are always with market participants. For as long as I’ve traded it was always over and let’s fucking go. These two thought processes are entirely distinct and we often get caught in between them — periods of consolidation and indecision. When trading daily, we tend to over exaggerate...Read More

Pre-market Trump announced his intention to slap 25% tariffs on Apple if they do not bring back iPhone production into the US. Then he followed up with a EU is treating us badly tweet and recommended 50% tariffs to go effective June 1st. On this news, stocks tanked by 2%. But I think we understand...Read More

The SPY shed 162bps, Nasdaq 142bps, the Russell 2000 lost 280bps, and we shed ~125bps — after a 20yr bond auction went awry this afternoon. It was all going so wonderfully, up until that point and were met with a 75bps candle from hell.Is it important? Yes and No.The 20yr isn’t really relevant but what...Read More

This is the evergreen question that all traders and investors want answered, at all times. Is this rally for real or temporary? If temporary, are we going to retest the lows and feel our stomachs churn with rising levels of cortisol, wondering if the next 1987, 2000, 2008 is around the bend? These events are...Read More